Democrats hold fundraising advantage over Republicans in 5th and 6th district races

ROANOKE, Va. (WDBJ) - Democratic challengers have a fundraising advantage in Virginia’s 5th and 6th congressional districts, according to Federal Election Commission filing reports released a week before Election Day. Republicans have held both districts for years.

Unlike the last few congressional races in the area, Democrats are raising more money as they try to flip the two districts that are typically Republican strongholds.

Candidates across the country have raised almost $3.7 billion for this year’s election, according to Federal Election Commission data. Democrats have raised about $2.2 billion. Republicans have raised around $1.5 billion.

All 10 of the top 10 national fundraisers are Democrat candidates.

The House is raising almost $1 billion more than the Senate. There are 400 more House seats open than Senate seats, so proportionally more money is being raised for Senate races.

Virginia 6th District

In the 6th District, Republican Rep. Ben Cline was first elected in 2018. Democrat Beth Macy, a former Roanoke Times reporter and best-selling author, has raised $2.9 million. Cline has raised $1.9 million.

In 2024, Democratic challenger Ken Mitchell raised $242,000 in his race against Cline. In 2022, Democratic challenger Jennifer Lewis raised just $143,000.

Cline won the district by nearly 30 points in 2024. No Democrat has won the 6th District since 1990.

WDBJ7 Political Analyst Dr. Cayce Myers said fundraising is important, but does not fully predict success. He said the money may help Macy’s margins, but he thinks it is a long shot for her to unseat Cline.

“It may improve her margins. It may mobilize some voters. I do think it’s a challenge,” Myers said. “I would be surprised if that was a pickup for the Democrats.”

Myers said Macy has high name recognition. He said that under a redistricting plan proposed earlier this year that was struck down by the Virginia Supreme Court, she would have been in a strongly Democratic-leaning district. He said where Macy goes after the election if she does not win is something to watch.

“She is operating at a level where she brings a lot of celebrity to that race. Again, I think it’s a challenge for her. But, you know, it’s something that clearly there are donors who are enthusiastic about her as a candidate,” Myers said.

Virginia 5th District

In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire has served just one term. However, Republicans have held the seat since 2011.

Democrat Tom Perriello was the last Democrat to win the district back in 2008 and is running against McGuire. Perriello has raised $3.7 million. McGuire has raised $2.4 million.

Democrats have not put that much money into the district since 2020, when Cameron Webb raised more than $5 million in an unsuccessful effort to unseat Republican Bob Good. McGuire won the district by 15 points in 2024.

“Money matters in all political races. But it is not a total predictor of success,” Myers said. He said Democrats are putting money into the race because they think it is competitive. “They’re not going to put money into races they think are uncompetitive,” Myers said.

Myers said fundraising, which he called the primary tool for advertising, is about mobilization and framing the election.

“Sometimes ads, it’s not so much about getting people to show up, but it’s to sort of deflate the opponent’s supporters. And so they may feel that, you know, this is just really not our year. So it’s not that they’re voting Democrat. It’s just that they just don’t go to the polls. I think there’s a little of that at play in 2026 writ large. And certainly that’s at play in the fifth,” Myers said.

Myers said the race has seen a lot of money from outside the state on both sides. He said money in competitive districts is not necessarily raised in the district.

He listed super PAC money and 501(c)(4) money as players in American politics.

“The fact that they’ve raised so much demonstrates, I think, the competitiveness of that race, regardless of what the polls may be saying right now,” Myers said. “I think Perriello has a shot.”

Myers said Republicans and Democrats are both running on affordability in 2026. He said gasoline and diesel prices are a key part of affordability, and he linked them to the war in Iran. He said a high degree of voter dissatisfaction with the status quo translates into anti-incumbency. He said President Trump and his policies are on the ballot in an implied way.

Myers said turnout in the parts of the district that carried McGuire to victory in 2024 will be the thing to watch. He said he would look at three groups to determine how this year’s race will go:

• Rural voters who make up the Republican base.
• Suburban voters who voted Republican in 2024 but are not necessarily Republicans.
• Voters in the traditionally Democratic parts of the district, including some larger towns.

Virginia 9th District

In Virginia’s most conservative district, the 9th, Republican Rep. Morgan Griffith has held the seat since 2011. Griffith has raised $2.1 million. Democratic challenger Joy Powers has raised $256,000.

Griffith has won every re-election race since 2014 by 30 points or more. Myers said the lack of Democratic spending in the district shows the party’s donors do not believe they have much of a shot.

Myers said the spending is about prioritization. He said Democrats are spending strategically in Virginia districts seen as competitive, and he named the 2nd, 5th, and 1st districts.

Myers said that in the 9th District, “the power of incumbency” and the political demographics of the district mean it is not a competitive place for a Democrat to run.

U.S. Senate race

In Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner has raised more than $27 million. Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa has raised just over $1 million.

Myers said the lack of Republican spending shows the party is not confident it can unseat Warner, whom he called a strong incumbent.

“Warner is an incredibly strong incumbent. He likely will win,” Myers said.

He said Republicans nationally do not see the race as competitive.

Warner has won four statewide races in Virginia since 2001. He is seeking a fourth six-year term in the Senate in what he said will be his last race. If he is re-elected, he will be 78 years old when his term ends.

Myers said campaign finance is becoming a bigger political issue. He said voter dissatisfaction with the status quo includes a view that big donors are a corrupting influence. He said there is conversation around dark money and big tech, and that donors from gambling companies and the crypto industry are making large donations.

“You could be a well-financed candidate, but have a backlash against you because of who your donors are and some of the political views that they have and some of the organizations they’re representing,” Myers said.

Myers said there hasn’t been a major campaign finance reform discussion in the country in decades, but he believes it could be on the horizon after this year’s midterms.